Risk Management

    Methods and Tools

EVENT TREE

What Is It

An event tree is a logic diagram that starts with a single event and explores all possible combinations of success and failure events to lead to an (unfavorable or favorable) outcome. It answers the question what can go wrong? In risk management, event tree could be applied to identify risks based on an undesired outcome resulting from an initiating event. The combination of success and failure traced through the "pathway" will be used to analyze the corresponding risks.

When To Use

Use this tool

  • To identify potential outcomes (risks) from a single event.
  • To determine the combination of events (pathways) which lead to a risk for its analysis.

Benefits

Event tree analysis

  • Helps to answer the question what can go wrong?
  • Graphically provides the "pathway" which leads to the risk.
  • Breaks down activities into detailed steps for better management.
  • Helps to identify system weaknesses.
  • Allows single and multiple failures to be examined.

© January 1, 2006 James C. Helm, PhD., P.E.